Comments for Property Crumble

Comment on Property Price Losses in 2011 by admin

admin — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 13:24:36 +0000

Yes, I agree – London property markets are driven by risk aversion, greater fear in other locations and a weak pound.

The pound is recovering and risk and fear will recede – then what for a weakened city of London? Slowly down is the only route, surely?

Comment on Property forecast 2012 by admin

admin — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 13:22:13 +0000

Hi Brett – I wish I could agree…

Sterling has been weak for a long time now – and is beginning to recover – hence, any actual gains in foreign markets will be wiped out by currency losses.

Spain – for instance, could lose 35% in currency value if the Euro were to split up – not nice if you have a 20% mortgage as it immediately puts you into negative equity.

My view is that most prices in Western Europe were driven forward by a credit bubble that hasn’t fully unwound yet – and even when fully unwound, there is slim likelihood of a similar bubble ocurring in the next 5 to 10 years.

You can now get 5% on long term money – and inflation is falling – this is the place to keep your money until property prices truely fall.

The alternatives for UK investors are probably angel investing (see http://www.iBusinessAngel.com) because of the ‘match your money’ tax incentives for 2012.

Br
Neil

Comment on Property forecast 2012 by Brett

Brett — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 11:58:29 +0000

Agree that property prices are unlikely to recover in 2012, but is putting money in the bank earning low interest really an alternative to investing in property? There are property markets overseas that still offer a good return on investment in the long term. Also there are signs that in some locations property prices are beginning to recover.

Comment on Property Price Losses in 2011 by Buy To Letter

Buy To Letter — Sun, 02 Oct 2011 15:50:02 +0000

In my opinion property speculation is a bad idea. Property could continue to fall until 2015.

Buying to let can be a good idea if you’re buying to earn money from income (i.e. rent). But if it’s being done to earn from increasing house prices forget it. Buying something in the belief that it will be worth more in the future is gambling. Buying something to earn from the revenue the asset generates is investing.

Property is rising in London due to cash rich foreign investors taking advantage of the falling Pound. But London could turn out to be the biggest property bubble of them all, it’s got all the signs of one.

Comment on 2011 Property Price Forecast by Miserable first quarter for UK property prices in 2011 | Property Crumble

Miserable first quarter for UK property prices in 2011 | Property Crumble — Sat, 30 Apr 2011 12:22:11 +0000

[...] as argued in our 2011 property price forecast, we expect to see an overall drop of 3% in 2011 but a real fall in value of around 8%. To date, the [...]

Comment on Gloom for 2011 property price forecasts by DrBubb

DrBubb — Tue, 28 Dec 2010 23:56:39 +0000

I have picked up these forecasts for 2011 so far:

UK House price forecasts for 2011

+ Roger Bootle “megabear”: -10 to 15% in a year “is not impossible”
+ DrBubb/ Global———— : – 9.0% (London – 6.5%)
+ IG Index- Sep2011 (156.4) : – 6.5% – yoy to Sept.2011
+ Howard Archer /IHS Global : – 6.0? (”will lose 10% from 2010 peak”)
+ Liam Bailey, Knight Frank : – 6.0%
+ Yolanda Barnes, Savills– : – 3.0% (London – 1.0%)
+ Hometrack —————– : – 2.0%
+ RICS / Royal Inst. Surv.– : – 2.0%

/source: http://tinyurl.com/GEI-hpi2011

If you give me the official PC forecast, I will add it

Comment on Gloom for 2011 property price forecasts by admin

admin — Tue, 14 Dec 2010 21:33:58 +0000

Anthony – you sound like an estate agent?

Not sure I follow your argument.

However, the point is that when you remove the rapid credit explosion from the increase in property prices, you end up with – around about – 2004 prices in terms of affordability based on long term credit availability and current levels of disposible income.

You are correct that there is a huge amount of dis-information spread by property agents with a commission to earn.

Comment on Gloom for 2011 property price forecasts by ANTHONY TALBOT

ANTHONY TALBOT — Tue, 14 Dec 2010 11:55:21 +0000

how can the value of investment property be calibrated at the 2004 value when i sold a 2 bedroom flat at 125k
this would not fetch 100k in the same area now
2004 market values were at their peak at that time it is nonsensicle to state this type of facts to lay readers etc

Comment on SE England property prices capitulate as 2011 forecasts head down by UK House Price Forecasts for 2010 and 2011 Start to Dim | Property Crumble

UK House Price Forecasts for 2010 and 2011 Start to Dim | Property Crumble — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 10:06:58 +0000

[...] month survey showed us that South East England property stocks capitulated and this month the South East surveyors turned negative, for the first time, in their forecast [...]

Comment on 2010 Property Prices Up, no down, no up, no down, down down by SE England property prices capitulate as 2011 house price forecasts head down | Property Crumble

Thu, 29 Jul 2010 06:00:32 +0000

[...] regular readers of this property price blog will know, we closely follow the supply and demand in UK property to see where property and house prices might head in 2010 and what we might forecast for 2011 property [...]